by Moise Garcon on Tuesday, December 7, 2010 at 9:44pm
Haitians politics is definitely like a Hollywood thriller movie...There is always something new...the stress is always high and you cannot afford to lose sight of any details because things are not always what they seem.
After making sure that Sunday's election failed, the party INITE is now playing all the cards so they can stay in Power.
Of course they already won the majority in the parliament, but Mr Preval and his tenors are neither naive nor stupid they know that winning the Presidency is a MUST to guarantee total control of Haiti's destiny and keeping the statu quo.
Right now, we do know that pressures are coming from everywhere and the international Community mostly want to show change by electing a President that is not from INITE. Currently the best contenders are Michel Martelly (Repons Peyizan) and Mirlande Manigat (RDNP). Both candidates did support the Group 13 that stand against the fraudulent election last Sunday and gave a Press conference at the karibe center to inform the population that they have enough proof to confirm that the Election was not going well and they are out asking the CEP to take note and for the population to give up on voting and later join them on the streets to say ABA Preval and the YES to the Annulment of the Election. The CEP did not panic and confirmed that everything was going as planned, via their own press conference, except few irregularities that can be investigated and corrected.
The representant of the Minustha, Edmond Mulet, said almost the same thing. To him the election was simply a success.
And, as you know, after a long night and so many phone calls and emails, both Michel Martelly and Mirlande Manigat realized the following day (11/29) they had plenty to lose if they don't keep on going.
So they retracted and got back on the race claiming that they are winning...
Inite via it's Coordinator Senateur Joseph Lambert (south East, Jacmel) did play it soft at first on Tuesday, then came back strong on Wednesday to guarantee INITE supporters that they have won most seats for the parliament and they are more than positive Jude Celestin will either win right away or in the second tour!
These declarations conflict with previous allegations from Senateur Lambert and preliminary reports published by the newspaper El Mundo (citing diplomatic sources) Michel Martelly was already credited 39% of counted ballots (from 49% already in).
Senateur Lambert did confirm that Jude Celestin had already win 7 out of 10 departments according to "procès verbaux" at hands...
So, this back and forth has created so much heat, comments and debates that the Minustha had to intervene via le Nouvelliste to ask all actors, observers and candidates to remain calm and wait for the results which should be ready on December 6th or 7th.
While the process seems to follow its course, the group 13 reduced to 10-11 candidates continue to plead in favor of the annulment of the elections. Their claim is well supported by several groups or independent observers local and international who believe that Sunday elections cannot be serious nor fair because of too many serious irregularities, fraud, case of stuffed ballots in several locations, and mostly all the confusion that reduced the percentage of vote or worse denying most Haitians their Right to vote, etc.
Since the OAS, the CEP and Minustha have validated the election nothing seem to change until the results of the first tour.
However, probably more complications has led the Representant of the Minustha in Haiti, diplomat Edmond Mulet, to say in an interview with AFP (Agence France Presse) that the Minustha is threatening to leave Haiti if the popular vote is not respected.
Most people feel confused about this declaration since the Minustha is also very involved in the process and is to blame for several irregularities last Sunday. Some believe it's blackmailing, others think it's serious...
Pierre Emile Rouzier,Ex-President of the Franco-Haitian chamber of commerce in Haiti, declare in a statement: "How can we have a second tour when there was no first tour?"
In an exclusive interview to the national newspaper "Le Nouvelliste" the candidate of INITE Mr Jude Celestin, who was very rare and unavailable to the Press during the campaign, sounds very calm and confident. He thinks the other candidates attitude is puerile and immature. He request the CEP (the Electoral Council) to take necessary actions against all the candidates who did not follow the law by protesting too early or before the official results. He was referring to the article 122-2 of the Electoral Law...
Even the Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said today that "irregularities" during the presidential elections in Haiti were worse than First Report and called for urgent action to avoid another crisis in the country...
Thousand of observers around the globe think the multitudinous attacks on Haiti's dignity reached it's edge during this period and also believe that this non-election is for the non-government of the non-sovereign State of Haiti.
Rumors are spreading each second and no one truly know or can exactly anticipate what's going to happen soon, but clearly we are dealing with a crisis that is growing and may become violent and chaotic the longer the suspense last.
UPDATES:
12/06/2010
***The CNO (Conseil National des Observateurs) has already tipped the public via their open report confirming the possibility of a second tour with Mirlande Manigat vs Michell Martelly. According to their preliminary report, Mrs Mirlande Manigat won 30% of the vote, following by Mr Michel Martelly (Sweet Micky) 25%, and Jude Celestin, in third place collecting only 20% of the vote. Far behind, Mr Jean H. Ceant, with 8% of the vote.
***True patriots is anticipating the following scenarios for the Presidential:
1- Run off (second tour): Michel Martelly vs Mirlande Manigat
2.1- Run off (second tour):Mirlande Manigat vs Jude Celestin (Highly possible)
2.2- Run off (second tour) opposing 3 candidates (very likely): Michel Martelly, Mirlande Manigat, Jude Celestin.
3- An outright victory of Jude Celestin (no second tour) ----Possible
4- An outright victory of Michel Martelly (no second tour)-----unlikely
5-An outright victory of Mirlande Manigat (no second tour) ---unlikely
6-An annulment of the elections -----Possible, if option 3 applies.
What to expect in case of a run off?
We'll keep you posted.
Moise Garcon
Freelancer
Consultant
P.S True Patriots and VHAD (Voice of the Haitian-American in the Diaspora), JADEN, and several other organizations stand against the election of last Sunday (11/28) because they were bias and fraudulent. So we suggest you to sign the following symbolic Petition if you share our concerns:
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